The decision of the Paris court in the case of the parliamentary assistants of the National Assembly (NA) deputies is expected on Monday, March 31.
Marine Le Pen faces a five-year sentence of disenfranchisement with provisional execution. This scenario would rule her out of the next presidential election and clear the way for Jordan Bardella to run.
Will Marine Le Pen be barred from the 2027 presidential elections?
The three-time presidential candidate (2012, 2017, 2022), who twice reached the second round, has been indicted for embezzlement of public funds and complicity. She faces five years in prison, of which two years can be commuted to a hard sentence, a fine of €300,000 and five years' imprisonment, suspended.
Such a custodial sentence, which would apply even in the event of an appeal by the leader of the NC group in the National Assembly, would have serious political consequences, writes France 24.
Even in the event of a suspended sentence of disqualification, Marine Le Pen would retain her seat as a deputy.
"This is the result of case law from 2009 and a ruling concerning the Polynesian MP Gaston Flosse. Since then, there has been a difference in the treatment of national and local elected representatives," said Camille Ains, a professor of public law at the University of Paris Nanterre and author of a detailed article on this issue on the Jus Politicum blog.
For example, municipal councillors sentenced to such a penalty are stripped of their mandate immediately after the sentence is handed down, while deputies and senators are not.
This distinction was confirmed on Friday, March 28, by a decision of the Constitutional Council, which was responding to a question asked by Rahadi Saindou, an elected representative from Mauritania who was convicted in June 2024 of embezzlement of public funds, handling stolen goods and illegally taking interest.
In their opinion, the wise men held that "by virtue of Article 3 of the Constitution, Members of Parliament participate in the exercise of national sovereignty and, under the terms of Article 24(1), vote the law and control the actions of the Government" and that "in view of their special position and the prerogatives they possess under the Constitution, Members of Parliament are in a different position from that of municipal councillors".
Clearly, the Constitutional Council considers that nationally elected representatives have a more important status that justifies the different treatment," explained Camille Ains.
"There is a kind of double standard here, because in principle the text of the Electoral Code does not distinguish between national and local elected representatives," she added.
Consequently, although her mandate as a member of parliament is not in jeopardy, Marine Le Pen will not be able to run in the 2027 presidential elections if she is sentenced to a suspended sentence.
"An ordinary sentence of disqualification would be automatically suspended if Marine Le Pen appeals the decision, but if the sentence of disqualification is accompanied by provisional execution, as requested by the prosecution, then it would apply immediately, even in the event of an appeal," said Camille Ains.
In the event of a conventional sentence of deprivation of rights followed by an appeal by Marine Le Pen immediately afterwards, and given the time taken by the courts and the procedures before the Paris Court of Appeal and the Court of Cassation, it is likely that a final decision will not be handed down until 2027, which would allow Marine Le Pen to stand in the presidential elections.
On the other hand, the provisional execution of the sentence would prevent her from doing what is clearly feared by the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder of the far-right National Front party, which in 2018 became the National Assembly (NA). This impossibility will also apply in the event of new snap elections if Emmanuel Macron dissolves the National Assembly for a second time. Then Marine Le Pen would not be eligible to stand for re-election.
With such far-reaching political consequences, there will surely be an outcry if a verdict of disqualification is handed down today, with preliminary execution.
"The republic of judges, or the government of judges, is a theme that has been gaining momentum over the past few years, and we hear it in relation to decisions affecting politicians, but also in criminal cases, with the far right and the right accusing the judiciary of being politicised on the left," said political scientist Jean-Yves Camus, president of the Observatory of Political Radicalisms at the Jean Jaurès Foundation and a specialist on the far right.
This accusation is linked to the basic argument that only voters should be able to decide through their vote to sanction an elected representative. According to the right and the far right, by sentencing Marine Le Pen to disqualification, the court would be interfering in political life, effectively making a decision for the French people.Hence the parallel accusation of 'denial of democracy' made by the SC immediately after the announcement of the charges on 13 November 2024.
"Their sole purpose is to prevent me from being the presidential candidate of my camp.
You have to be deaf and blind not to see that," reacted Marine Le Pen at the time.
"The prosecution is not concerned with justice, but with implacability and revenge against Marine Le Pen. Her scandalous accusations aim to deprive millions of French people of their right to vote in 2027. This is an attack on democracy," said Jordan Bardella, President of the National Assembly.
"According to this argument, there will be two opposing legitimacies: that of the ballot boxes, which will be superior, and that of the judges, which will be inferior. But supporters of this view forget, on the one hand, that justice is done in the name of the French people and, on the other, that even if there is room for interpretation, judges are simply applying the laws passed by parliament," said Camille Ains.
In fact, it was the 2016 "Sapin 2" law, passed after the Cayuzac affair, that made the penalty of disqualification automatic for convictions related to integrity violations.
A sentence of disqualification combined with a pre-emptive penalty against Marine Le Pen would also have the effect of pushing Jordan Bardella towards the presidential election. Although for some observers the question of Bardella's candidacy in 2027 has already arisen, the MEP has so far always been loyal to the woman who launched him onto the political and media scene.
The decision expected today could change all that.
At just 29 years old, the MEP has already published an autobiography, Ce que je cherche (Fayard, 2024), which came out four days before the indictment in the trial of the parliamentary assistants of the National Assembly. At the time, he described his book as a "tête-à-tête (one-on-one conversation) with the French". No one in the party doubted that he would gladly take on the role of presidential candidate.
It remains to be seen whether this change in line-up will be of benefit to the National Assembly.
"On the one hand, it would show that the party can field a candidate who does not come from the Le Pen family, who is young, popular and who enjoys a growing media profile. On the other hand, Bardella would also suffer from his youth, his inexperience and the fact that this would be his first presidential campaign", analyses Jean-Yves Camus, who believes that the balance between the advantages and disadvantages of Bardella's candidacy "is being balanced".
In addition to Marine Le Pen, the National Assembly and 24 other defendants are suspected of having participated in a "system" set up between 2004 and 2016 consisting of "artificial contracts" for European Parliament collaborators who actually worked for the Front National.
In total, nine former MEPs have been accused of embezzling public funds: Marine Le Pen, Louis Alliot, Marie-Christine Arnault, Nicolas Bay, Bruno Gollnisch, Fernand Le Rachinel, Marie-Christine Boutonnet, Dominique Bilde and Mylène Troscinski. | BGNES
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Analysis by France 24.
