Artificial intelligence is struggling to predict the outcome of the notoriously secretive and unpredictable process by which Catholic cardinals choose a new pope.

The death of Pope Francis on 21 April has triggered a period of mourning in the Catholic Church, but it has also kick-started the race to be his successor, with everyone from Vatican insiders to bookmakers guessing who it will be.

Four artificial-intelligence chatbots, including OpenAI's ChatGPT and billionaire Elon Musk's Grok, have given mixed answers on potential contenders for the post.

Google's Grok and Gemini have said their favourite is Italy's Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the number two at the Vatican during Francis's almost entire pontificate.

"Based on current analysis and discussions, Cardinal Pietro Parolin emerges as a strong contender," Gemini said.

"If I were to make a prediction based on current trends, influence and the direction the Church has taken under Pope Francis, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle stands out as the most likely candidate," Open AI's ChatGPT said.

Tagle is the Asian favourite for the papal throne and, like Pope Francis, is seen as an advocate for the poor, migrants and marginalised people.

One similarity in the chatbots' responses stands out, however. Each of them stresses that it is almost impossible to predict the outcome.

"It is important to understand that while artificial intelligence can analyse data and identify patterns, predicting the next wave involves factors that go beyond data analysis," Gemini said.

These factors include the cardinals' theological positions, age, experience and the secrecy that accompanies voting.

ChatGPT clarified that its guess is "not a prediction in the sense of a crystal ball," but rather "something along the lines of 'here's what the cardinals might think.

Meanwhile, the French Mistral AI declined to join the guessing game.

"I have no ability to predict or speculate on who the next Pope will be," the chatbot said.

Mistral did offer one suggestion: "For the most accurate and up-to-date information, I recommend following reliable news sources." | BGNES, AFP